decision-sensitivity

$npx mdskill add yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine/decision-sensitivity

Prioritize uncertainty reduction using EVPI to guide research decisions

  • Identifies uncertainties that directly impact research direction decisions
  • Uses web and paper research SOPs to gather data for analysis
  • Calculates EVPI to determine which uncertainties have the highest value to resolve
  • Delivers prioritized recommendations for reducing high-impact uncertainties

SKILL.md

.github/skills/decision-sensitivityView on GitHub ↗
---
name: decision-sensitivity
description: Identify which uncertainties would actually change the research direction decision. Compute EVPI to prioritize uncertainty reduction.
used-by: sensitivity-analysis
---

# Decision Sensitivity

Focus on uncertainties that change decisions, not just numbers.

## Budget

| Base SOP | Target | ±10% Range |
|----------|--------|------------|
| web-search | 25 | 22–28 |
| web-research | 10 | 9–11 |
| paper-overview | 25 | 22–28 |
| paper-search | 15 | 13–17 |
| paper-research | 10 | 9–11 |

## State Ledger

```
<HARD-GATE>
| SOP | Done | Target | % |
|-----|------|--------|---|
| web-search | ? | 25 | ? |
| web-research | ? | 10 | ? |
| paper-overview | ? | 25 | ? |
| paper-search | ? | 15 | ? |
| paper-research | ? | 10 | ? |
Budget Gate: OPEN/CLOSED (>=80% required to exit)
</HARD-GATE>
```

## Available SOPs

**Import:** web-search, web-research, paper-overview, paper-search, paper-research
**Subagent:** critical-path-identification, sensitivity-synthesis

## Execution Guidance

Identify which uncertainties would actually change the research direction decision. Compute Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) for each uncertain parameter. Focus resources on reducing uncertainty with highest EVPI.

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