scenario-construction

---
name: scenario-construction
description: Construct distinct future scenarios spanning key uncertainties for portfolio stress testing.
execution: subagent
prompt: ./prompt.md
input: context, uncertainties
used-by: portfolio-optimization
---

# Scenario Construction

Build a set of distinct, plausible future scenarios that span the key uncertainties relevant to portfolio performance.

## Execution

Spawns a subagent that identifies key uncertainties and constructs diverse scenarios for stress testing.

## Why Subagent

Scenario construction requires creative yet disciplined thinking to produce scenarios that are distinct, plausible, and collectively span the uncertainty space. This generative-analytical work benefits from focused attention.

## HARD-GATE

Output must contain at least 3 distinct scenarios that span different combinations of key uncertainties. Each scenario must include a narrative, key assumptions, and probability estimate.