scenario-construction

$npx mdskill add yogsoth-ai/de-anthropocentric-research-engine/scenario-construction

Generates at least 3 distinct future scenarios for portfolio stress testing

  • Identifies key uncertainties relevant to portfolio performance.
  • Deploys a subagent that leverages creative thinking and analytical tools.
  • Decides on scenario construction by considering different combinations of uncertainties.
  • Delivers the generated scenarios in narrative form with key assumptions and probability estimates.

SKILL.md

.github/skills/scenario-constructionView on GitHub ↗
---
name: scenario-construction
description: Construct distinct future scenarios spanning key uncertainties for portfolio stress testing.
execution: subagent
prompt: ./prompt.md
input: context, uncertainties
used-by: portfolio-optimization
---

# Scenario Construction

Build a set of distinct, plausible future scenarios that span the key uncertainties relevant to portfolio performance.

## Execution

Spawns a subagent that identifies key uncertainties and constructs diverse scenarios for stress testing.

## Why Subagent

Scenario construction requires creative yet disciplined thinking to produce scenarios that are distinct, plausible, and collectively span the uncertainty space. This generative-analytical work benefits from focused attention.

## HARD-GATE

Output must contain at least 3 distinct scenarios that span different combinations of key uncertainties. Each scenario must include a narrative, key assumptions, and probability estimate.

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